2023-02-12 12:00:47 <veltas      > The Tom and Jerry antics continue, I've caught 5 mice, 3 traps failed to trigger, all the bait is gone. So there's at least one more, I've reset the three traps with bait
2023-02-12 12:00:52 <veltas      > Hopefully I get the rest
2023-02-12 12:01:17 <veltas      > Almost fell through the ceiling doing this, the chip board up there isn't very strong apparently, snapped some of it in half
2023-02-12 12:40:39 <KipIngram   > Fun times.
2023-02-12 12:41:09 <KipIngram   > Definitely been there a couple of times over the years.
2023-02-12 14:46:55 <MrMobius    > veltas: I couldnt get our traps to trigger reliably either. this worked though: https://i.pinimg.com/originals/47/d7/7a/47d77ad579702518c3ea1d0f9f3abee5.jpg
2023-02-12 15:23:40 <veltas      > I've got the rod as close to the hole as I can, hopefully it will work this time
2023-02-12 15:23:51 <veltas      > end of the rod I mean
2023-02-12 17:15:35 <Zarutian_iPad> ugh https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XeSu9fBJ2sI is stating the “Sleeping Beuty problem” and many people get the wrong 1/3 probability answer
2023-02-12 17:16:54 <Zarutian_iPad> the girl awakes at every juncture with the same information she had when she first went to sleep in the experiment
2023-02-12 17:18:17 <Zarutian_iPad> ”what was the probability that the fair coin came up heads before you were awaken?” is the question she gets asked every time
2023-02-12 17:18:35 <Zarutian_iPad> 1/2
2023-02-12 17:20:25 <Zarutian_iPad> the ‘one thirders’ are answering a diffrent question: what is the probability that the coin came up tails on MONDAY?
2023-02-12 17:22:09 <Zarutian_iPad> the answer is: if I, sleeping beuty, is being awoken now on MONDAY the answer is 1/2 but if it is TUESDAY then it is 1/3
2023-02-12 17:23:59 <Zarutian_iPad> (the likely hood of HEADs that is)
2023-02-12 17:24:01 <thrig       > some don't care if Monday's blue
2023-02-12 17:33:55 <KipIngram   > Veritasium is good.
2023-02-12 17:35:04 <MrMobius    > 1/2 seems correct on the face but 1/3 seems to make more sense after I think abou tit
2023-02-12 17:35:18 <KipIngram   > So, is there just one coin flip, on  Sunday right after she's put to sleep?
2023-02-12 17:35:32 <MrMobius    > yes
2023-02-12 17:35:53 <KipIngram   > So if the coin comes up heads, she's wakened on Monday only?
2023-02-12 17:36:09 <KipIngram   > And if it comes up heads she's wakened on Monday and Tuesday?
2023-02-12 17:36:41 <KipIngram   > Given that there just one coin flip, and it's a fair coin, it's hard to see how the answer could be anything other than one half.
2023-02-12 17:36:41 <MrMobius    > heads - monday only, tails monday and tuesday but she doesnt remember monday when wakened on Tuesday
2023-02-12 17:36:52 <KipIngram   > Oh, ok.
2023-02-12 17:37:09 <KipIngram   > But the number of times she's woken up doesn't have anything to do with the coin probability.
2023-02-12 17:37:18 <KipIngram   > It's flipped one time.
2023-02-12 17:37:20 <KipIngram   > It's fair.
2023-02-12 17:38:15 <KipIngram   > She doesn't get told what day it is when she's woken, and doesn't remember anything, so the fact that she's woken once or twice is irrelevant.
2023-02-12 17:38:22 <KipIngram   > I mean, to her.
2023-02-12 17:38:28 <MrMobius    > the odd thing is he flipped a coin a bunch of times and the probabilities come out to 1/3 for each option. i dont get that part. its seems like 50/25/25
2023-02-12 17:38:43 <KipIngram   > What are the options?
2023-02-12 17:38:55 <KipIngram   > The coin is flipped one time.
2023-02-12 17:38:59 <MrMobius    > Monday and heads, monday and tails or tuesday and tails
2023-02-12 17:39:04 <KipIngram   > The options are "it comes up heads," and "it comes up tails."
2023-02-12 17:39:30 <KipIngram   > I don't think it's valid to count her "wakings."
2023-02-12 17:39:42 <KipIngram   > The way the question is phrased is "what is hte probabilit the coin came up heads?"
2023-02-12 17:39:53 <KipIngram   > Her naps don't even have to figure in the problem.
2023-02-12 17:40:03 <KipIngram   > We flipped a fair coin.  End of story.
2023-02-12 17:40:04 <MrMobius    > No, her naps are the question it is asking about
2023-02-12 17:40:13 <KipIngram   > Lemme re-listen.
2023-02-12 17:40:14 <MrMobius    > No, the question isnt asking about the coin flip
2023-02-12 17:40:29 <MrMobius    > or isnt asking exclusively about that
2023-02-12 17:41:00 <KipIngram   > https://imgur.com/a/mI8qsSR
2023-02-12 17:41:18 <KipIngram   > Ok, let me continue.   Maybe they modify later on.
2023-02-12 17:41:35 <KipIngram   > But THAT ^^ question is only about the coin flip.
2023-02-12 17:44:14 <KipIngram   > If she wants to maximize her "score" on asnwering all the questions she's asked, then maybe she should say 1/3.  I haven't quite thought it through yet, but that's a different situation, because she's asked more questions when it comes one way than hte other.
2023-02-12 17:44:44 <KipIngram   > But it feels like there the question should be "which way did the coin come up?"
2023-02-12 17:44:59 <MrMobius    > I see now how it works with the probability. the three outcomes are equally likely
2023-02-12 17:45:22 <MrMobius    > and two of them mean tales which is why 1/3 seems convincing
2023-02-12 17:45:26 <KipIngram   > The *probability" of how the coin comes up in its one flip is a function only of the fairness of the coin.
2023-02-12 17:45:49 <MrMobius    > yes but the outcome of the coin flip is not the same. she isnt woken up the same number of times
2023-02-12 17:46:03 <MrMobius    > the outcome as in the concsequences even if the probability is 50/50
2023-02-12 17:46:13 <KipIngram   > But that's not because of a change in the probability of the coin outcome.
2023-02-12 17:46:17 <KipIngram   > It's an exogenous factor.
2023-02-12 17:46:26 <KipIngram   > A manipulation of the procedure.
2023-02-12 17:47:00 <KipIngram   > The outcome probability was 50/50 - we're just treating the two outcomes differently.  Weighting them differently, via the procedure.
2023-02-12 17:47:42 <MrMobius    > the thing is you have extra information which lets you reason about what happened
2023-02-12 17:48:32 <KipIngram   > I bet this is going to wind up being one of those things people argue about because they're answering different questions.
2023-02-12 17:48:38 <MrMobius    > hehe
2023-02-12 17:48:52 <KipIngram   > They're arguing about what the question means, not about the actual answer in either case.
2023-02-12 17:49:59 <MrMobius    > I think it's the same trap people fall into when you ask them the chances of rolling a 3 twice on a dice
2023-02-12 17:50:08 <MrMobius    > then ask them the chance of rolling a 3 after you just rolled one
2023-02-12 17:50:12 <MrMobius    > which are different calculations
2023-02-12 17:51:49 <MrMobius    > to be fair, the question is not about what the coin will do which would be 50/50 but what it did in the past
2023-02-12 17:52:17 <KipIngram   > Yeah, ok - there are two ways to make the question "clear."
2023-02-12 17:53:31 <KipIngram   > Here's where 1/3 comes from.  If this experiment is going to be repeated many times, and she wants to choose a probability that makes her answer  "right" across the long haul, then that is 1/3.
2023-02-12 17:53:55 <KipIngram   > What probability should she choose to "maximize her success' in the long-term situation?  1/3.
2023-02-12 17:54:31 <KipIngram   > But just saying  "what's the probability the coin came up heads?" does not motivate that whole situation.
2023-02-12 17:54:43 <KipIngram   > It's just a simple question about a fair coin slipped once.
2023-02-12 17:54:46 <KipIngram   > flipped
2023-02-12 17:56:32 <MrMobius    > random gripe - this Brothers brand printer gripes at me to update the firmware then prompts me for a password when I try to install it
2023-02-12 17:56:41 <MrMobius    > why in god's name is my printer password protected??
2023-02-12 17:57:49 <thrig       > to keep out the l33t h2xorz
2023-02-12 17:59:01 <KipIngram   > Does it have communication capability?  Network access, etc.?
2023-02-12 17:59:29 <KipIngram   > If so, then malicious firmware could network out copies of everything you print.