2023-11-13 03:32:34 <KipIngram   > I've continued to watch more of the Peter Zeihan videos.  His argument is just so "basic" (looking at things as simple as the population vs. age profile of various countries) that's really hard for me to see ways to argue against his points.
2023-11-13 03:33:28 <KipIngram   > And his arguments really do make what's going on in Russia actually make SENSE to me, and I'd previously not seen any sense at all in them.
2023-11-13 03:33:51 <KipIngram   > I'd just decided that Putin must be deranged, but now I don't think that's the case at all.
2023-11-13 03:34:48 <KipIngram   > That has to do not just with population demographics but also with geography of the region.
2023-11-13 03:39:26 <thrig       > lack of talent therefore grab more land for more money
2023-11-13 03:59:48 <KipIngram   > It's security oriented.  Over there on the west edge of the old Soviet bloc there are "chokepoints" invading forces would have to pass through.  They're readily defensible.  Once through those, though, it's wide open rolling plains all the way to and into Russia.  Much harder to mount a defense inside those doorways.
2023-11-13 04:00:21 <KipIngram   > Their demographcs mean that it's just going to get harder for them to recover those old bloc countries in the future, so there's pressure to do it now.  It's their best chance.
2023-11-13 04:01:01 <KipIngram   > They feel that if they don't get this done now, they'll be forever vulnerable and won't be able to defend themselves in the future.
2023-11-13 04:02:22 <KipIngram   > Also, Ukraine specific, turns out Ukraine has a lot of natural gas reserves off its coast.  They started talking with Western oil majors about developing those resources.
2023-11-13 04:02:37 <KipIngram   > They'd be direct competition with  Russia in the European market.
2023-11-13 05:29:53 <Swyrl       > I'm doing some freaky shit. https://mastodon.social/@wryl/111401275464305664
2023-11-13 08:55:32 <KipIngram   > Swyrl:  Nice.
2023-11-13 09:47:03 <Swyrl       > KipIngram: Thanks. I guess it technically counts as a concatenative language, because the code there is forthy.
2023-11-13 09:47:11 <Swyrl       > Well, it compiles to something forth-like.
2023-11-13 10:01:30 <veltas      > KipIngram: I think the invasion is based on medieval principles
2023-11-13 10:01:47 <veltas      > People weren't stupid in medieval times, they just had very different principles to an extent it seems alien now
2023-11-13 14:43:42 <veltas      > Just had someone ask me a managerial question because I've got same name as my boss
2023-11-13 14:43:49 <veltas      > Promotion by aliasing
2023-11-13 15:11:54 <KipIngram   > I can't tell exactly what you mean by "medieval" principles, exactly.
2023-11-13 15:12:12 <KipIngram   > That could mean a lot of things, I think.
2023-11-13 15:12:59 <KipIngram   > I think history has given Russia good reason to worry about future invasions - they've been invaded quite a lot over the centuries.
2023-11-13 15:13:27 <veltas      > Yes I suppose it is quite vague
2023-11-13 15:13:31 <KipIngram   > And of course worrying over their future national revenues makes a lot of sense too.
2023-11-13 15:13:42 <KipIngram   > They're WAY dependent on those oil revenues.
2023-11-13 15:13:53 <KipIngram   > oil/gas
2023-11-13 15:14:06 <KipIngram   > Yeah - I can't even tell if I agree or not.  :-)
2023-11-13 17:36:46 <KipIngram   > Anyway, from what I can tell the West's big worry is that if this analysis is right - if it's really control of those choke points they're after, then Ukraine isn't enough.  They'll have to move on into Poland, Latvia, Estonia, etc.  And those are NATO countries.  NATO will have to respond to that, and will win, and the fear is that at that point Russia will resort to nukes, since they see this as about
2023-11-13 17:36:48 <KipIngram   > fundamental survival.
2023-11-13 17:37:08 <KipIngram   > Maybe that's totally wrong - I hope so .  Maybe they just want Ukraine's oil/gas and don't want Ukraine as a competitor and that's the end of it.