2026-03-23 07:59:20 <tpbsd       > if anyone is looking for a ST-LINK Chinese dongle (about $3) see my notes first so you dont buy the one that does NOT output 3.3v as indicated on the pinout legend :   https://mecrisp-stellaris-folkdoc.sourceforge.io/swdcom.html#stlink-dongle
2026-03-23 09:26:20 <lisbeths    > so ive created this linux program called elfc
2026-03-23 09:26:45 <lisbeths    > and it narrows down the c language to a subset of c that works much like assembler
2026-03-23 09:27:18 <lisbeths    > and this is useful for writing one forth that works across multiple architectures
2026-03-23 09:27:54 <lisbeths    > so now i finally feel justified writing my own forth cause I can write it in elfc instead of some machine specific language
2026-03-23 10:23:00 <veltas      > 32-bit?
2026-03-23 10:28:37 <veltas      > I love writing toy architectures, I've done a few of them, ilo (by crc, not me) is one of my favourites though because of how small/simple it is
2026-03-23 10:32:21 <tpbsd       > veltas, I had a new Forth user on my own channel tell me that his new pcb with a stm32G030 was totally dead and wouldnt talk Forth on his terminal
2026-03-23 10:32:55 <tpbsd       > I went thru all the usual things, starting by suspecting that the Aliexpress supplied MCU was a fake etc
2026-03-23 10:34:05 <tpbsd       > the user found the problem, which really suprised me, the Chinese $3 st-link usb dongle wasnt outputting 3.3V as marked on the legend of the unit!
2026-03-23 10:34:53 <tpbsd       > the pin was dead, so he did some googling and was informed, 'nope they dont have 3.3v' !
2026-03-23 10:36:15 <tpbsd       > I was lucky, the ones I have which are almost identical, do have 3.3v available, but after searching Aliexpress, the bad ones are everywhere, the good ones are hard to find
2026-03-23 10:37:04 <veltas      > I guess needs probing
2026-03-23 10:37:18 <veltas      > Return it if it's not as sold
2026-03-23 10:37:32 <veltas      > Sounds like it's not a bad idea to probe any USB dongle you get first
2026-03-23 10:37:40 <tpbsd       > to china for $3 ?
2026-03-23 10:37:51 <veltas      > Yeah on aliexpress the rules are different
2026-03-23 10:37:54 <veltas      > You get what you pay for
2026-03-23 10:38:14 <tpbsd       > luckily the good and bad units have different pinouts on the connector legend
2026-03-23 10:38:28 <tpbsd       > so one can tell based on the sales image
2026-03-23 10:39:03 <tpbsd       > it would cost far more to send it back, so not economically sensible
2026-03-23 10:39:16 <tpbsd       > cheaper to buy the good ones
2026-03-23 10:40:13 <veltas      > Yeah of course
2026-03-23 10:40:29 <tpbsd       > the good ones are fine, definitely worth $3 as the parts peobably cost $20 if one buys them seperately
2026-03-23 10:40:31 <veltas      > I mean though if you got it off amazon it's worth sending back, but would have been more expensive in first place
2026-03-23 10:41:04 <tpbsd       > they are very expensive on Amazon, probably $20 at least
2026-03-23 10:41:10 <veltas      > He probably should have asked you about the listing before he bought it
2026-03-23 10:41:18 <tpbsd       > Amazon sucks here in Australia
2026-03-23 10:41:18 <veltas      > You probably could have helped advise right
2026-03-23 10:41:42 <tpbsd       > I wasnt aware of it myself, but Ive updated my website since
2026-03-23 10:41:57 <tpbsd       > he brought it to my attention
2026-03-23 10:41:59 <veltas      > Interesting
2026-03-23 10:42:23 <tpbsd       > yeah, I thought I knew everything in that area, guess I didnt!
2026-03-23 10:42:51 <veltas      > There's always more to learn
2026-03-23 10:42:56 <tpbsd       > true
2026-03-23 10:43:00 <veltas      > Have you heard about this impending Helium shortage?
2026-03-23 10:43:23 <tpbsd       > I suspect it's not a rip off, probably a production fault and the sellers are clueless
2026-03-23 10:43:37 <tpbsd       > yeah, it's going to be a big problem
2026-03-23 10:44:33 <tpbsd       > if the war on iran stopped today, the helium issue would mean that TSMC couldnt get helium for production until October this year
2026-03-23 10:45:16 <tpbsd       > so what will TSMC do ? make nvidia chips and hold all others, like iphones and STM32 chips ?
2026-03-23 10:46:07 <tpbsd       > the other problem is power, Tiawan is 97% dependent on LNG for power, and it all comes from the persian Gulf, or rather it did
2026-03-23 10:47:03 <tpbsd       > if youre planning to get some mcus for embedded hobbies, Id be placing the order today and hoping they arrive
2026-03-23 10:48:26 <veltas      > Incredible disruption from this war, yeah I know there are plans to try and get the strait open
2026-03-23 10:48:50 <tpbsd       > thats not going to happen I think
2026-03-23 10:49:15 <tpbsd       > do you remember the incredible supply disruption with Covid ?
2026-03-23 10:49:55 <tpbsd       > during covid, arrow.com had ZERO STM32xx for sale
2026-03-23 10:50:21 <tpbsd       > you couldnt buy a single model of Cortex-M from them as all stock read zero
2026-03-23 10:51:30 <tpbsd       > it was amazing, and so many people on line told me that their job has suspended production of stock for lack of processors
2026-03-23 11:07:09 <veltas      > Yeah I followed it and it impacted us
2026-03-23 11:08:13 <veltas      > I was looking at (but didn't in the end) buying a new car and they actually said they wouldn't put the new digital interface in the car, would be using older design without this tablet thing, and I thought that was ideal lol
2026-03-23 11:08:20 <veltas      > Because they didn't have the chips
2026-03-23 11:08:31 <veltas      > The lead time would have been much higher with this rubbish tablet
2026-03-23 11:08:47 <tpbsd       > yeah, it was bad, have we fully recovered from that yet ?
2026-03-23 11:08:50 <veltas      > I didn't get the car in the end because I think buying a brand new car is not worth it
2026-03-23 11:08:59 <veltas      > Mostly yeah
2026-03-23 11:09:06 <tpbsd       > youre right I think
2026-03-23 11:09:23 <veltas      > I think lead times haven't really totally recovered anywhere, like how healthcare has just been permanently worse since covid
2026-03-23 11:09:39 <veltas      > Because really covid was an excuse for a lot of bad habits so generally things have degraded since covid
2026-03-23 11:10:24 <tpbsd       > it's gotta be hard now, fuel will be more espensive permanetly I think, and the trump has bet on the ICE, hes not interested in EEV's
2026-03-23 11:10:36 <tpbsd       > so what can you do ?
2026-03-23 11:11:11 <veltas      > I think fuel will go back down but maybe prices won't recover, that would just be inflation if so
2026-03-23 11:12:09 <veltas      > All new cars are just dreadful, over-engineered eco engines are just a nightmare, so expensive to fix
2026-03-23 11:12:13 <tpbsd       > china has it sorted out, they are installing 60 solar panels a minute on their grid, which is huge. Electricity cost is 1/4 of the USA for china iirc, and they have bet on eev's
2026-03-23 11:12:23 <veltas      > So buying a new ICE car won't solve the problem
2026-03-23 11:12:38 <tpbsd       > yeah, theyre complex and proprietary
2026-03-23 11:12:55 <tpbsd       > Id avoid them like the plague
2026-03-23 11:13:10 <tpbsd       > but old cars suck the fuel
2026-03-23 11:13:28 <veltas      > Solar isn't reliable though
2026-03-23 11:14:02 <tpbsd       > something like a VW 'golf' diesel 5 years old  which have great power and low fuel cost ?
2026-03-23 11:14:18 <veltas      > 5 years old is too new
2026-03-23 11:14:34 <veltas      > Low fuel cost is great but you'll pay for that gain in maintenance
2026-03-23 11:14:43 <tpbsd       > not by itself, but the Chinese have massive wind and nuclear power, plus gas and coal etc
2026-03-23 11:14:47 <tpbsd       > yeah
2026-03-23 11:15:10 <tpbsd       > I think the days of cheap transport are over
2026-03-23 11:15:42 <tpbsd       > Im 71, so I can remember filling up my mums 'morris mini' for $5 back in 1971
2026-03-23 11:15:56 <tpbsd       > that would be good for a weeks driving
2026-03-23 11:17:21 <tpbsd       > my Dr friend has 84KW of solar at home and a similar battery pack, he recently purchased a BYD 'seal' eev
2026-03-23 11:17:34 <veltas      > Cheap everything is over, the west is slowly becoming poorer thanks to our fiat currencies and poor understanding of economics / society
2026-03-23 11:17:37 <tpbsd       > Im betting he will have cheap transport now
2026-03-23 11:17:58 <veltas      > The obvious answer to "why is everything so expensive" is "because you are poor"
2026-03-23 11:18:02 <tpbsd       > yeah, hell, we will be lucky to buy the food we like at this rate
2026-03-23 11:18:07 <tpbsd       > hahah
2026-03-23 11:18:26 <veltas      > "but I have so much money" "Your money is worthless"
2026-03-23 11:18:46 <tpbsd       > I read that someting like 200 gas stations in Sydney are out of gas now
2026-03-23 11:18:59 <veltas      > Courtesy of Adolf Hitler, he did a number on our society
2026-03-23 11:19:21 <veltas      > Really incredible how you can become so obsessed with an enemy you turn into him
2026-03-23 11:19:33 <tpbsd       > I can always sell my mcus for food ;-)
2026-03-23 11:19:56 <tpbsd       > 1 cortex-m per apple ?
2026-03-23 11:20:29 <iv4nshm4k0v > http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Distribution_of_wealth .  The thing I find worthy of attention is country's per-adult wealth, /and/ Gini coefficient for the wealth distribution.  My /hunch/ is that a healthy value for the latter is somewhere around 0.7.
2026-03-23 11:21:42 <veltas      > Distribution of wealth is never the issue, it's a symptom
2026-03-23 11:26:09 <veltas      > Like if food gets expensive in your country, because there are almost no farms and your currency isn't worth much internationally, then maybe instead of stealing yellow metal from wealthy people that did a better job managing their resources than you, maybe you should let them manage some farms
2026-03-23 11:27:02 <veltas      > And instead of forcing them maybe let them keep their yellow metal, it's actually worth less than food when the food runs out anyway
2026-03-23 11:27:05 <tpbsd       > hard to do when the farmers have no diesel fuel for their tractors and no fertilizer
2026-03-23 11:27:38 <veltas      > Interestingly diesel should be one of the more secure kinds of fuel
2026-03-23 11:27:52 <veltas      > I mean you can *make* good enough diesel from vegetable oil etc
2026-03-23 11:27:52 <tpbsd       > the worlds fertilizer is made from oil these days, and it comes from the persian gulf
2026-03-23 11:27:53 <iv4nshm4k0v > Wealth inequality is both a symptom /and/ a cause of further problems.  A strong headache /might/ be a symptom, but it also may be distracting enough to cause you to hit your thumb with a hammer.
2026-03-23 11:28:53 <tpbsd       > veltas, but we have painted ourselves into a corber I think, because to grow vegies for oil, we need fertilizer ?
2026-03-23 11:29:26 <veltas      > iv4nshm4k0v: Okay but I would say that taking their stuff is immoral and less helpful than useful, even if it's 'distracting'
2026-03-23 11:31:10 <iv4nshm4k0v > The thing to understand is that government never has "their own" money.  You want free healthcare? free school for your kids? police?  All that takes money, and all that money is taken from the pockets of the people.  If that's immoral, then, well, public schools are immoral too.
2026-03-23 11:31:12 <veltas      > tpbsd: I'm not an expert on this, I mean surely there's more expensive ways to get ammonia?
2026-03-23 11:31:38 <veltas      > Like maybe eventually it becomes worth using electrolysis to get the hydrogen?  No clue if that's ever worth it but just an example
2026-03-23 11:31:40 <iv4nshm4k0v > I'm also curious, what kind of fertilizer is made from oil?
2026-03-23 11:31:43 <tpbsd       > veltas, Im no expert either
2026-03-23 11:32:15 <veltas      > iv4nshm4k0v: The haber process needs nitrogen (air is mostly nitrogen) and hydrogen, and energy/pressure.  The hydrogen mostly comes from natural gas / oil apparently
2026-03-23 11:32:58 <veltas      > I just googled it, that would be much more efficient than electrolysis of water which can produce hydrogen and oxygen but requires a big energy input
2026-03-23 11:33:33 <veltas      > Haber process is very interesting because its invention is one of the things that made WW1 so bad, it allowed the production of much more gunpowder
2026-03-23 11:33:44 <veltas      > But also saved many lives by preventing famines
2026-03-23 11:33:56 <tpbsd       > I only know because something like 30% of the worlds fertilizer comes from the oil rich gulf of Persia
2026-03-23 11:33:58 <veltas      > It's saved and created more lives than it's killed
2026-03-23 11:34:51 <tpbsd       > veltas, always two sides to everything I guess
2026-03-23 11:35:13 <veltas      > It goes to show how engineering and science have an unavoidable impact on society
2026-03-23 11:35:19 <tpbsd       > the mcu's I put in food processing equipment, can also be put in bombs
2026-03-23 11:36:47 <veltas      > iv4nshm4k0v: Basically all that stuff is becoming less affordable, and e.g. in UK the tax burden is higher than ever, while economy stagnates.  So I think tough decisions are needed.
2026-03-23 11:37:56 <tpbsd       > veltas, I think the west is deteriorating and the leaders needed dont exist, the decisions needed wont be made
2026-03-23 11:38:10 <tpbsd       > in a way, we are like rome
2026-03-23 11:38:27 <tpbsd       > and all great civs come to a end eventually
2026-03-23 11:38:41 <tpbsd       > I think this is ours
2026-03-23 11:38:53 <veltas      > People are very entitled, with Iran crisis a lot of British people stuck in middle east are expecting support from the gov and handouts
2026-03-23 11:39:18 <veltas      > As far as I'm concerned that's their problem, if I was stuck in Dubai I wouldn't expect hard working people to pay for me to leave, I'd assume I was on my own
2026-03-23 11:40:28 <tpbsd       > and lots have left, but as airports are closed the means of escape are limited. The rich bought all the private planes and pilots they could find and they left weeks ago
2026-03-23 11:41:31 <tpbsd       > veltas, we have had suck a long run of peace in the west, wars are always, 'some where else' and we live like princes
2026-03-23 11:41:39 <iv4nshm4k0v > That's curious.  Plants are grown, in part, for their protein content.  To create protein, plants take nitrogen from the soil.  To replentish soil's nitrogen content, fertilizer is used.  That approach is not without its drawbacks; for instance, excess nitrogen is washed to the oceans and causes algae blooms.
2026-03-23 11:41:39 <iv4nshm4k0v > An alternative is to interleave crop plants with legumes - whose roots are home to bacterial symbionts that can acquire nitrogen from air.
2026-03-23 11:41:51 <tpbsd       > we dont know starvation and misery any more
2026-03-23 11:42:39 <veltas      > iv4nshm4k0v: Wait until you find out that the nitrogen they use lets off a lot of nitrous oxide, which is in its own league of greenhouse gases ... it probably makes CO2 output irrelevant to climate change in comparison
2026-03-23 11:42:48 <tpbsd       > veltas, one good thing may come of it, perhaps the west will get thin again, like in the WW2 years ?
2026-03-23 11:43:44 <iv4nshm4k0v > I've kinda-sorta pinned methane as the most "greenhouse" of the greenhouse gases, no?
2026-03-23 11:43:56 <veltas      > Nitrous oxide is worse I think
2026-03-23 11:44:07 <veltas      > And yet the coal and dirty emissions they have shut down in Asia actually *caused* the global wave of heat we've had because they are reverse greenhouse gases and were actually shielding us from solar energy, but also cause lung disease
2026-03-23 11:44:25 <tpbsd       > and N0 is made by ICE engines everywhere
2026-03-23 11:45:05 <tpbsd       > I used to repair and calibrate 'gas analysers'
2026-03-23 11:45:22 <tpbsd       > for the automotive industry
2026-03-23 11:45:28 <veltas      > iv4nshm4k0v: In COVID the econimic output slowed down a LOT, and it also implicitly reduced human CO2 emissions temporarily to a much lower figure, close to our grand targets of reductions.  But it actually had NO impact on CO2 levels increasing in the atmosphere.
2026-03-23 11:45:48 <veltas      > Therefore reducing CO2 output of humans has no impact on CO2 increase in global atmosphere
2026-03-23 11:46:01 <veltas      > Yet political machine is still stuck on CO2
2026-03-23 11:46:53 <veltas      > https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/emission-reductions-from-pandemic-had-unexpected-effects-on-atmosphere/
2026-03-23 11:47:08 <veltas      > https://magazine.caltech.edu/post/atmospheric-co2-covid-pandemic
2026-03-23 11:47:46 <iv4nshm4k0v > When it comes to engines, I think http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tetraethyllead way more harm to humanity than greenhouse emissions from the same.
2026-03-23 11:48:05 <veltas      > Political *air chemistry* is out of hand, it's an engineering problem but the addition of toxic politics from both sides has made it totally corrupt and backwards
2026-03-23 11:48:39 <tpbsd       > veltas, I agree
2026-03-23 11:49:09 <tpbsd       > veltas, that and the eduring greed for more money
2026-03-23 11:49:17 <veltas      > It's just a big corrupt waste of money now, insane the kind of crap they fund for 'green' energy.  Some of the output's been nice but it's not a return on investment, crazy amount of money has disappeared on stuff that was never going to help
2026-03-23 11:50:03 <veltas      > I guess it's better to waste money on pointless stuff than to lobby for wars though
2026-03-23 11:50:25 <tpbsd       > sadly there is lots of money in wars
2026-03-23 11:50:34 <veltas      > I know people who won't have kids because they're worried about the climate apocalypse and yet all they know is probably wrong at this point
2026-03-23 11:53:06 <veltas      > Likewise just as dumb to stick head in sand and say it's all fake, like we literally demonstrated we can make the earth hotter but ironically it was *caused* by green policies
2026-03-23 11:53:06 <tpbsd       > I read that japan hadnt had a birth in 3 months the other day
2026-03-23 11:53:09 <veltas      > https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/253873/climate-change-accelerates-record-breaking-pace-sulphur/
2026-03-23 11:53:32 <iv4nshm4k0v > I won't have kids because my estimate is that I need some 5e4 USD in savings to make sure they have something to eat when I, say, change jobs.  With my income never exceeding 1e4 USD in a year, that's, well, a very distant goal to reach.
2026-03-23 11:53:55 <veltas      > Sorry to hear that iv4nshm4k0v, where do you live?
2026-03-23 11:54:27 <iv4nshm4k0v > In Asia.  I was born in USSR, and never ventured outside its borders.
2026-03-23 11:54:33 <tpbsd       > I had 6 kids and I didnt ever think of them as an expense, but that was 40 years ago
2026-03-23 11:55:19 <veltas      > Yes but tpbsd if you make $1000 a year you might struggle to feed them
2026-03-23 11:55:30 <tpbsd       > iv4nshm4k0v, thats cool, I love reading about Russia, such a interesting country and peoples
2026-03-23 11:56:00 <veltas      > Are you in Russia or another former Soviet country?
2026-03-23 11:56:13 <tpbsd       > 
ACTION is in australia

2026-03-23 11:57:26 <tpbsd       > iv4nshm4k0v, I know how Russia was first at almost everything important, their list of achievments is massive!
2026-03-23 11:57:31 <iv4nshm4k0v > An IRC pal of mine (who came from a big family; oft refers to himself as "7 of 9") had no trouble saving for a house in the suburbs of Moncton in his 30s - working at a computer store.  He's once said his kids are no slackers, either, and in their 30s, too, but no chance to have their own houses.
2026-03-23 11:57:39 <tpbsd       > hahah
2026-03-23 11:57:57 <tpbsd       > yeah, life is hard thesedays
2026-03-23 11:58:32 <iv4nshm4k0v > veltas: Too personal a question, I'm afraid.
2026-03-23 11:58:43 <tpbsd       > when I was 25 I purchased 8.5 acres of land with a old cottage on it in perth, repayments were about $175 a month over 15 years
2026-03-23 11:58:44 <veltas      > No worries
2026-03-23 11:59:08 <tpbsd       > and that was about 1983
2026-03-23 11:59:56 <tpbsd       > 3 of my six kids are paying of a house of their own, the others will probably rent for the rest of their lives
2026-03-23 12:00:39 <iv4nshm4k0v > That's linked to the distribution of wealth: the higher is the Gini coefficient, the longer you have to work "from rags to having your own house."  When Gini becomes closer to one, the "time to work" approaches infinity.  Can't quite prove that, but looks to be the case.
2026-03-23 12:01:01 <tpbsd       > lots of kids I meet here thesedays telll me they have given up on the prospect of ever owning their own home
2026-03-23 12:03:06 <iv4nshm4k0v > Another IRC pal of mine (in his 50s, though - hardly a kid) has enough wealth in a trust, but won't buy a house, as he sees that as an obstacle when changing jobs.
2026-03-23 12:03:26 <cleobuline  > hello
2026-03-23 12:04:11 <cleobuline  > https://labynet.fr/stochanalysis.html
2026-03-23 12:04:54 <tpbsd       > and it is I agree
2026-03-23 12:06:16 <tpbsd       > my second daughter is an architect, she had a great job in Melbourne and so bought an apartment there, then the firm closed and she got a great job in perth, now shes built a second house in perth
2026-03-23 12:06:54 <tpbsd       > she rents the one in melbourne I believe, but land prices have plummeted there this year
2026-03-23 12:07:01 <veltas      > ~.
2026-03-23 12:07:37 <veltas      > Sorry was reopening ssh
2026-03-23 12:08:04 <tpbsd       > she buys me a large box of hi quality grass fed beef every month and gets it delivered to me, so there is one reward for having kids !
2026-03-23 12:08:21 <veltas      > Very nice
2026-03-23 12:08:42 <tpbsd       > yeah, Im on my second box atm, I wasnt expecting it
2026-03-23 12:08:59 <tpbsd       > now if the other kids would do the same, I'd live like a king!
2026-03-23 12:10:37 <iv4nshm4k0v > Anyway, I've read G. K. Chesterton, and the problems he described - and the proposed solutions he questioned - in his works seem surprisingly familiar and contemporary.  Somehow.
2026-03-23 12:11:22 <veltas      > What is your proposed solution?
2026-03-23 12:12:04 <tpbsd       > Soylent Green ?
2026-03-23 12:14:49 <iv4nshm4k0v > I can't claim I quite understand the problem, even - just the pieces.  What I /do/ understand is that the /efficiency/ is achieved by lowering /cost/ - and the cost of production of a given good is, ultimately, the cost of labor.  Someone who promises you a more efficient economics is in fact promises you higher unemployment rates.  Something that, say, Finland has recently experienced.
2026-03-23 12:16:03 <veltas      > I think that's true but only sometimes
2026-03-23 12:18:15 <veltas      > But it works both ways, if labour is required to solve a problem then sometimes reducing cost can be reducing regulatory/planning costs, cracking down on high level corruption, reducing tax
2026-03-23 12:18:59 <veltas      > And then you *have* to pay your labour a competitive rate to keep them, or they'll work at a factory that pays more.  So the profit line for factories is inevitably slim (but obviously a lot more rewarding to the owner than the employee)
2026-03-23 12:19:49 <veltas      > If you can reduce the number of people working you always would, there's always that incentive, but the fact is that most people who are employed are crucial (although they can be replaceable)
2026-03-23 12:20:56 <veltas      > Lots of second and thirld world countries do well by cracking down on corruption, having rule of law, and having low tax for corporations.  Then they attract foreign investment who will 'exploit' a low value currency, low wage expectations, etc
2026-03-23 12:21:12 <veltas      > But the end result is more jobs and actually higher wages for people in that 'exploited' country
2026-03-23 12:22:20 <veltas      > You lose all that if you go too socialist because foreign investors will deem it risky, they don't want to invest and then have their assets 'redistributed'
2026-03-23 12:23:23 <veltas      > It's not a conspiracy, it's just the concept of 'property', and it's older than civilisation itself
2026-03-23 13:07:04 <KipIngram   > I think it's important to remember that it's not a zero-sum game.  People that stop doing one thing are available to do other things, and we're constantly coming up with new things to work on.  There's no denying it's a cyclic thing - I don't think any system can promise consistently unbroken high output with no glitches / hiccups.  I'm not opposed to a social safety net to prevent overt suffering
2026-03-23 13:07:07 <KipIngram   > when people get caught in a down-turn.  What you don't want, though, is to wind up with a "permanent welfare class."
2026-03-23 13:08:56 <iv4nshm4k0v > I actually suspect that we /did/ run out of "new things to work on."  Hence stagnation.
2026-03-23 13:09:00 <KipIngram   > I don't think having the government try to meddle in the economy to attempt to prevent unemployment is the right approach.  I've already stated that what I think should be regulated is entity size and economic power - aside from that I think the government should largely stay out of the economy - let it do its thing; it knows better than the government officials do.  If the results are such that we
2026-03-23 13:09:03 <KipIngram   > feel like we need to do some modest wealth redistribution in the name of that "suffering prevention," so be it.  That can be done entirely outside of the economy's detailed operation.
2026-03-23 13:09:44 <KipIngram   > Like I said - cycles.   There are going to be times it feels that way, but sooner or later things will turn up again.  I completely don't believe there will ever be a permanent dearth of new innovation.
2026-03-23 13:11:33 <veltas      > I think what we've got right now (in the west) is the downside of assuming the west would have exponential growth indefinitely
2026-03-23 13:12:10 <veltas      > And it's tearing everything apart, I think the right model accepts that you'll have periods of decline or stagnation
2026-03-23 13:12:32 <KipIngram   > When I say the government should "stay out of it" I don't mean that there should be ZERO regulation of anything other than size.  Protecting the environment and other such things are important goals - I just think it's important not to get so carried away with those things that we stifle economic progress COMPLETELY.  Yes, the environment matters, but it matters because WE LIVE IN IT, and we do
2026-03-23 13:12:34 <KipIngram   > need to be able to do the things we need to do to survive.
2026-03-23 13:12:47 <KipIngram   > There's a balance there that needs to be found.
2026-03-23 13:12:55 <iv4nshm4k0v > I don't find it too profitable to ponder on problems outside of my own expertise, but I don't find the idea of "well, someone will figure something out, as has happened before" too appealing to follow, either.
2026-03-23 13:13:34 <veltas      > KipIngram: The issue is the government is the worst equipped to fix climate change, the fact it's politics cross-sectioned with science means the science gets political and we end up with nonsense and corruption as I laid out earlier
2026-03-23 13:13:43 <KipIngram   > We can't really have that one both ways, though - we have to pick the things that we think it's important to put our time and energy into, and the stuff we don't pick we're just not going to be very well-versed in.
2026-03-23 13:14:17 <KipIngram   > Yes, I know.  I think we should always be nervous when we start talking about THAT kind of regulation.  I don't demand that it be zero, but we need to be careful.
2026-03-23 13:14:36 <veltas      > Like reducing CO2 has been proven not to actually reduce CO2 increase in atmosphere yet that's all anyone will bang on about, and green policies have literally caused global warming
2026-03-23 13:14:50 <KipIngram   > Sometimes it's obvious - if you discover some company is just pumping poison out into our rivers or something, well, obviously we ought to be able to stop that.
2026-03-23 13:14:58 <KipIngram   > But there's a huge gray area.
2026-03-23 13:15:57 <KipIngram   > I've heard stories (possibly not true) of the EPA harassing farmers by declaring rain puddles on their property "waterways" and lowering the regulatory boom on them.  That seems obviously getting carried away.
2026-03-23 13:16:26 <veltas      > And even though this stuff is all coming from reputable and mainstream scientific sources I don't really hear anyone talking about this, even 'climate sceptics', no one's questioning the climate change theory either even though it's just not a justifiable theory anymore
2026-03-23 13:16:42 <veltas      > Like I'm citing NASA, Imperial college, etc
2026-03-23 13:17:16 <KipIngram   > Oh, the whole climate change thing has gotten impossibly politicized on both sides.  I don't really trust any of them.   Everyone has a political agenda (or a business agenda) and the climate has just become a political football.
2026-03-23 13:17:25 <veltas      > Their response is just coping
2026-03-23 13:19:12 <veltas      > I mean if a study is done scientifically and nobody can explain how the method was bad or how their conclusion makes no sense then that's about as good as it gets
2026-03-23 13:19:25 <KipIngram   > My main reason for preferring "capitalism" (or whatever you want to call basic free market economics) is that it's the system most consistent with individual freedom.  People choosing transaction by transaction how they want to do things.  The fact that it also happens to be the system that produces the most growth is mainly just a fringe benefit to me.
2026-03-23 13:19:36 <veltas      > I don't have to like NASA or Imperial college, I probably wouldn't "get one with them", but science has been popular/successful for a reason
2026-03-23 13:19:52 <KipIngram   > Yes.  It works.
2026-03-23 13:21:18 <veltas      > A paper stands on its own
2026-03-23 13:21:24 <veltas      > A good one anyway#
2026-03-23 13:23:16 <KipIngram   > I think parts of science have become somewhat "disconnected" from economic development.  Fundamental physics / particle physics, for example - I think we've largely already harvested the economic fruit from that during the 20th century.  What that really meant was that we already know the stuff we need to know to fully exploit, say, electromagnetism (a great economic engine of the 20th century).
2026-03-23 13:23:19 <KipIngram   > Understanding what happens at super high energies that never really occur in our daily lives isn't really going to pay more dividends of tha ttime.
2026-03-23 13:23:39 <KipIngram   > I think genetics, on the other hand, has a lot to offer.  I imagine there's a lot we can accomplish over time with "organic technology."
2026-03-23 13:23:50 <KipIngram   > And a lot of messes we could make too, so caution is advisable.
2026-03-23 13:24:07 <veltas      > iv4nshm4k0v: I always try to rely on the lessons of history, and try to cut out the nonsense.  I try to explain my reasoning etc, openly, in hope really someone who knows better can come disagree and I'll learn something, or otherwise I might also make others think
2026-03-23 13:24:26 <veltas      > But yeah I'm no genius I'll probably get a lot wrong
2026-03-23 13:24:42 <iv4nshm4k0v > The way I see it, the idea of free market is: maximizing public good through competition.  The idea of capitalism is: maximizing private profits through monopolies.  Unregulated free market eventually becomes capitalism.
2026-03-23 13:24:42 <iv4nshm4k0v > I have no doubt that science works, but converting scientific results into public policies is an art of its own.
2026-03-23 13:24:54 <KipIngram   > I think that as long as you're TRYING to "think" instead of just responding emotionally, you're off to a good start.
2026-03-23 13:27:36 <veltas      > I think the best regulation is just keeping competition fair and preventing dishonesty, theft, violence.  A lot of modern things that are or are arguably monopolies are only that way because of over-regulation and lots of unobvious intervention from states
2026-03-23 13:28:15 <veltas      > I mean look at microsoft... their business is entirely propped up by commons and state enforcement of their supposed 'property' in software, licenses, terms and conditions etc
2026-03-23 13:28:35 <veltas      > Internet infra that was made by the state and now is hugely beneficial to them
2026-03-23 13:30:23 <veltas      > I think generating value is hard, so look for people with the most profit.  Tech companies have massive margins... it could be because they deliver a lot of value, and nobody can do it as well as them... or it could be because they're preventing real competition
2026-03-23 13:31:50 <veltas      > I personally lean towards the former, I don't really think they're a monopoly, but I also don't think this situation is permanent
2026-03-23 13:31:57 <veltas      > I think a big reckoning will come
2026-03-23 13:33:45 <iv4nshm4k0v > Big Money companies /do/ have means to influence regulation, indeed.  It /shouldn't/ happen, but, well, poor people cannot be expected to vote responsibly.  An easy way to learn responsibility is by having - and managing - your own property, and when you don't have much on that front, well, you don't learn.
2026-03-23 13:34:41 <veltas      > True
2026-03-23 13:41:00 <KipIngram   > iv4nshm4k0v: That's my main reason for objecting to "big money" companies.  I have no problem with profit or wealth, until it becomes so extreme that it can begin to manipulate things, economically or through collusion with government or however.
2026-03-23 13:41:17 <KipIngram   > Human nature - if people have power to abuse, sooner or later they will.
2026-03-23 13:41:59 <KipIngram   > The very definition of "perfect competition" in economics texts is "no player's individual decisions can influence the overall market noticeably."
2026-03-23 13:42:13 <KipIngram   > Only the aggregate behavior does.
2026-03-23 13:42:32 <iv4nshm4k0v > "Extreme wealth" is exactly what I mean by "Gini becoming closer to one."  Like I've said, it's both a symptom - and a problem on its own.
2026-03-23 13:48:39 <veltas      > "Microsoft" is just a tech fund with good branding at this point
2026-03-23 13:50:10 <veltas      > What's interesting to me is the arguments I make about how e.g. Microsoft could go bust literally don't make sense to LLMs.  They can't comprehend it at all, it's not in their training.
2026-03-23 13:53:12 <veltas      > Yet it could happen, they're doing stuff that's arguably stupider than what Cisco did in the 90's
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